Vanguard economic and market update
21 July 2020 | Markets and Economy
Vanguard's key points:
- We expect a recovery in global growth to begin in the second half of 2020, with the trajectory of that growth related to the degree of Covid-19 containment efforts.
- Most parts of the world will likely experience a recovery in phases, with hallmarks of both a V-shape and a U-shape.
- We anticipate that the recovery will be faster and more V-shaped in China, which has returned to growth for the second quarter after contracting during the first quarter.
- Vanguard’s leading indicator suggests that global trade will continue what has been a sharp contraction as the third quarter begins. The pace of contraction appears to be slowing, however.
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